Spain vs Belgium
Spain host Belgium in the World Cup Quarter-finals at a venue still to be confirmed on 10 July 2026, with kickoff set for 19:00 UTC; this page carries the confirmed team news and lineups as they arrive, the head to head record and the data driven prediction, and it switches to live coverage at kickoff.
Form and Table
Prediction
- Spain
- Belgium
Predicted goals: Spain -2.5 | Belgium -3.5
Predicted winner: Spain | Win or draw
Advice: Double chance : Spain or draw
Prediction, Odds & Value Bets
Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain; odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ — gamble responsibly.
Most likely outcome
Spain to win (1) 51.4% Low confidence odds 1.63
Lowest-variance angle: Spain or draw (Double Chance) — 85.9%, High confidence (odds 1.16).
Based on the match prediction model blended with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds.
Suggested same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds3.86
- Implied probability25.9%
- Modeled probability22.7%
- Estimated EV-12.4%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain v Belgium | Double Chance: Spain or draw (Double Chance) | 1.16 | 86.2% | 85.9% | -0.3% |
| Spain v Belgium | Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 55.6% | 52.6% | -2.9% |
| Spain v Belgium | Total Corners: Under 8.5 | 1.85 | 54.1% | 50.1% | -3.9% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Markets & angles (1X2, goals, corners, shots on target)
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.90 | 25.6% | 34.6% | +8.9% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Belgium or draw (Double Chance) | 2.25 | 44.4% | 48.6% | +4.2% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Spain or draw (Double Chance) | 1.16 | 86.2% | 85.9% | -0.3% | High |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 55.6% | 52.6% | -2.9% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 8.5 | 1.86 | 53.8% | 49.9% | -3.9% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 8.5 | 1.85 | 54.1% | 50.1% | -3.9% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.36 | 73.5% | 68.8% | -4.7% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | Belgium to win (2) | 5.25 | 19.0% | 14.0% | -5.1% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 80.6% | 75.2% | -5.5% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | Spain to win (1) | 1.63 | 61.3% | 51.4% | -9.9% | Medium |
Want the full picture? See every value angle, edge and expected value, plus how this match fits today’s high-value bets.
Full Spain vs Belgium betting analysis Today’s high-value bets
Updated: 7 Jul 2026, 05:32 UTC