England vs Croatia: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for England versus Croatia (kickoff 17 Jun 2026, 20:00 UTC). 12 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
England to win (1) 49.9% Low confidence odds 1.73
Lowest-variance angle: England or draw (Double Chance) — 85.1%, High confidence (odds 1.18).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds4.53
- Implied probability22.1%
- Modeled probability21.9%
- Estimated EV-0.8%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England v Croatia | Double Chance: Croatia or draw (Double Chance) | 2.10 | 47.6% | 50.1% | +2.4% |
| England v Croatia | Double Chance: England or draw (Double Chance) | 1.18 | 84.7% | 85.1% | +0.4% |
| England v Croatia | Total Corners: Under 9 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 51.3% | -3.3% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.70 | 27.0% | 35.3% | +8.3% | +30.7% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Croatia or draw (Double Chance) | 2.10 | 47.6% | 50.1% | +2.4% | +5.1% | Medium |
| Double Chance | England or draw (Double Chance) | 1.18 | 84.7% | 85.1% | +0.4% | +0.5% | High |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 46.5% | 44.4% | -2.1% | -4.4% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 9 | 1.93 | 51.8% | 48.7% | -3.1% | -6.1% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 9 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 51.3% | -3.3% | -6.1% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 73.5% | 69.5% | -4.0% | -5.5% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 9 | 1.85 | 54.1% | 50.0% | -4.1% | -7.5% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Under 9 | 1.85 | 54.1% | 50.0% | -4.1% | -7.5% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | Croatia to win (2) | 4.85 | 20.6% | 14.8% | -5.8% | -28.3% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.22 | 82.0% | 75.7% | -6.3% | -7.6% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | England to win (1) | 1.73 | 57.8% | 49.9% | -7.9% | -13.7% | Medium |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 2.30 | 43.5% | Low |
| Ivan Toney | 2.60 | 38.5% | Low |
| Ollie Watkins | 2.60 | 38.5% | Low |
| Bukayo Saka | 3.50 | 28.6% | Low |
| Marcus Rashford | 3.50 | 28.6% | Low |
| Ante Budimir | 4.00 | 25.0% | Low |
| Morgan Rogers | 4.00 | 25.0% | Low |
| Eberechi Eze | 4.33 | 23.1% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.