Germany vs Ivory Coast: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for Germany versus Ivory Coast (kickoff 20 Jun 2026, 20:00 UTC). 10 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
Germany to win (1) 47.9% Low confidence odds 1.55
Lowest-variance angle: Germany or draw (Double Chance) — 76.6%, High confidence (odds 1.13).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds7.68
- Implied probability13.0%
- Modeled probability14.5%
- Estimated EV+11.1%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany v Ivory Coast | Double Chance: Ivory Coast or draw (Double Chance) | 2.40 | 41.7% | 52.1% | +10.4% |
| Germany v Ivory Coast | Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 57.8% | 54.8% | -3.0% |
| Germany v Ivory Coast | Total Corners: Over 9.5 | 1.85 | 54.1% | 50.7% | -3.4% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | Ivory Coast or draw (Double Chance) | 2.40 | 41.7% | 52.1% | +10.4% | +25.0% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Ivory Coast to win (2) | 5.60 | 17.9% | 23.4% | +5.6% | +31.1% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 4.20 | 23.8% | 28.7% | +4.9% | +20.6% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 57.8% | 54.8% | -3.0% | -5.1% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 9.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 49.3% | -3.3% | -6.3% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 9.5 | 1.85 | 54.1% | 50.7% | -3.4% | -6.3% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 66.7% | -4.8% | -6.7% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 83.3% | 77.8% | -5.6% | -6.7% | Low |
| Double Chance | Germany or draw (Double Chance) | 1.13 | 88.5% | 76.6% | -11.9% | -13.5% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Germany to win (1) | 1.55 | 64.5% | 47.9% | -16.6% | -25.8% | Medium |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Havertz | 2.10 | 47.6% | Low |
| Deniz Undav | 2.50 | 40.0% | Low |
| Nick Woltemade | 2.50 | 40.0% | Low |
| Maximilian Beier | 2.62 | 38.2% | Low |
| Leroy Sane | 3.00 | 33.3% | Low |
| Jamal Musiala | 3.00 | 33.3% | Low |
| Florian Wirtz | 3.00 | 33.3% | Low |
| Jamie Leweling | 3.60 | 27.8% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.