Morocco vs Haiti: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for Morocco versus Haiti (kickoff 24 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC). 10 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
Morocco to win (1) 58.5% Medium confidence odds 1.30
Lowest-variance angle: Morocco or draw (Double Chance) — 90.0%, High confidence (odds 1.05).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds4.40
- Implied probability22.8%
- Modeled probability18.6%
- Estimated EV-18.3%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco v Haiti | Goals Over/Under: Under 3.5 goals | 1.48 | 67.6% | 64.2% | -3.4% |
| Morocco v Haiti | Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 60.6% | 57.1% | -3.5% |
| Morocco v Haiti | Total Corners: Over 9.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 50.7% | -4.9% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 5.17 | 19.3% | 31.6% | +12.2% | +63.1% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Haiti or draw (Double Chance) | 3.40 | 29.4% | 41.4% | +12.0% | +40.8% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Haiti to win (2) | 9.50 | 10.5% | 9.9% | -0.6% | -5.7% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.48 | 67.6% | 64.2% | -3.4% | -5.0% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 60.6% | 57.1% | -3.5% | -5.7% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 9.5 | 1.85 | 54.1% | 49.3% | -4.7% | -8.8% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 9.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 50.7% | -4.9% | -8.8% | Low |
| Double Chance | Morocco or draw (Double Chance) | 1.05 | 95.2% | 90.0% | -5.2% | -5.5% | High |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 84.7% | 78.6% | -6.2% | -7.3% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | Morocco to win (1) | 1.30 | 76.9% | 58.5% | -18.4% | -23.9% | Medium |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Saibari | 2.00 | 50.0% | Low |
| Ayoub El Kaabi | 2.10 | 47.6% | Low |
| Soufiane Rahimi | 2.25 | 44.4% | Low |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 2.30 | 43.5% | Low |
| Brahim Diaz | 2.40 | 41.7% | Low |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 2.40 | 41.7% | Low |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 2.60 | 38.5% | Low |
| Chemsdine Talbi | 3.10 | 32.3% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.