Netherlands vs Sweden: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for Netherlands versus Sweden (kickoff 20 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC). 10 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
Draw (X) 34.6% Low confidence odds 3.90
Lowest-variance angle: Netherlands or draw (Double Chance) — 67.8%, Medium confidence (odds 1.17).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds7.28
- Implied probability13.7%
- Modeled probability17.6%
- Estimated EV+28.0%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands v Sweden | Double Chance: Sweden or draw (Double Chance) | 2.15 | 46.5% | 66.9% | +20.4% |
| Netherlands v Sweden | Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 53.2% | 50.5% | -2.7% |
| Netherlands v Sweden | Total Corners: Under 9.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 52.0% | -3.6% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | Sweden or draw (Double Chance) | 2.15 | 46.5% | 66.9% | +20.4% | +43.9% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Sweden to win (2) | 5.00 | 20.0% | 32.0% | +12.0% | +59.9% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.90 | 25.6% | 34.6% | +9.0% | +35.1% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 53.2% | 50.5% | -2.7% | -5.0% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 9.5 | 1.95 | 51.3% | 48.0% | -3.3% | -6.4% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 9.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 52.0% | -3.6% | -6.4% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.33 | 75.2% | 70.9% | -4.3% | -5.7% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 80.0% | 74.2% | -5.8% | -7.2% | Low |
| Double Chance | Netherlands or draw (Double Chance) | 1.17 | 85.5% | 67.8% | -17.7% | -20.7% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Netherlands to win (1) | 1.67 | 59.9% | 33.4% | -26.5% | -44.3% | Medium |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Brobbey | 2.60 | 38.5% | Low |
| Memphis Depay | 2.60 | 38.5% | Low |
| Wout Weghorst | 2.60 | 38.5% | Low |
| Cody Gakpo | 2.60 | 38.5% | Low |
| Donyell Malen | 2.60 | 38.5% | Low |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 3.25 | 30.8% | Low |
| Alexander Isak | 3.25 | 30.8% | Low |
| Guus Til | 3.50 | 28.6% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.