Paraguay vs Australia: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for Paraguay versus Australia (kickoff 26 Jun 2026, 02:00 UTC). 10 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
Draw (X) 39.5% Low confidence odds 3.25
Lowest-variance angle: Australia or draw (Double Chance) — 78.1%, High confidence (odds 1.67).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds4.20
- Implied probability23.8%
- Modeled probability27.0%
- Estimated EV+13.6%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay v Australia | Double Chance: Australia or draw (Double Chance) | 1.67 | 59.9% | 78.1% | +18.2% |
| Paraguay v Australia | Total Corners: Over 8.5 | 1.81 | 55.2% | 51.3% | -3.9% |
| Paraguay v Australia | Goals Over/Under: Over 1.5 goals | 1.39 | 71.9% | 67.4% | -4.5% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | Australia or draw (Double Chance) | 1.67 | 59.9% | 78.1% | +18.2% | +30.4% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Australia to win (2) | 3.48 | 28.7% | 38.6% | +9.8% | +34.2% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.25 | 30.8% | 39.5% | +8.7% | +28.4% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.9% | -2.6% | -5.8% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 8.5 | 1.91 | 52.4% | 48.7% | -3.7% | -7.1% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 8.5 | 1.81 | 55.2% | 51.3% | -3.9% | -7.1% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.39 | 71.9% | 67.4% | -4.5% | -6.2% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.20 | 83.3% | 77.8% | -5.6% | -6.7% | Low |
| Double Chance | Paraguay or draw (Double Chance) | 1.29 | 77.5% | 61.4% | -16.2% | -20.8% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Paraguay to win (1) | 2.15 | 46.5% | 21.9% | -24.6% | -52.8% | Medium |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isidro Pitta | 3.40 | 29.4% | Low |
| Alex Arce | 3.40 | 29.4% | Low |
| Gabriel Avalos | 3.40 | 29.4% | Low |
| Antonio Sanabria | 3.40 | 29.4% | Low |
| Julio Enciso | 3.60 | 27.8% | Low |
| Miguel Almiron | 4.00 | 25.0% | Low |
| Diego Gomez | 4.00 | 25.0% | Low |
| Ramon Sosa | 4.33 | 23.1% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.