Scotland vs Morocco: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for Scotland versus Morocco (kickoff 19 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC). 12 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
Draw (X) 35.9% Low confidence odds 3.55
Lowest-variance angle: Scotland or draw (Double Chance) — 68.0%, Medium confidence (odds 2.05).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds5.19
- Implied probability19.3%
- Modeled probability24.0%
- Estimated EV+24.8%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland v Morocco | Double Chance: Scotland or draw (Double Chance) | 2.05 | 48.8% | 68.0% | +19.2% |
| Scotland v Morocco | Goals Over/Under: Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 68.2% | -3.2% |
| Scotland v Morocco | Total Corners: Over 8.5 | 1.81 | 55.2% | 51.9% | -3.4% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | Scotland or draw (Double Chance) | 2.05 | 48.8% | 68.0% | +19.2% | +39.3% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Scotland to win (1) | 5.00 | 20.0% | 32.0% | +12.0% | +60.0% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.55 | 28.2% | 35.9% | +7.7% | +27.4% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 45.5% | 43.2% | -2.3% | -5.1% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 8.5 | 1.95 | 51.3% | 48.1% | -3.1% | -6.1% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 68.2% | -3.2% | -4.5% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 8.5 | 1.81 | 55.2% | 51.9% | -3.4% | -6.1% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Under 7.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 49.9% | -4.8% | -8.8% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 7.5 | 1.82 | 54.9% | 50.1% | -4.8% | -8.8% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.20 | 83.3% | 76.9% | -6.4% | -7.7% | Low |
| Double Chance | Morocco or draw (Double Chance) | 1.17 | 85.5% | 67.7% | -17.7% | -20.7% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Morocco to win (2) | 1.75 | 57.1% | 32.1% | -25.0% | -43.8% | Medium |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Saibari | 2.60 | 38.5% | Low |
| Ayoub El Kaabi | 2.75 | 36.4% | Low |
| Soufiane Rahimi | 3.00 | 33.3% | Low |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 3.20 | 31.3% | Low |
| Brahim Diaz | 3.20 | 31.3% | Low |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 3.20 | 31.3% | Low |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 3.60 | 27.8% | Low |
| Lawrence Shankland | 4.33 | 23.1% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.