Tunisia vs Netherlands: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for Tunisia versus Netherlands (kickoff 25 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC). 10 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
Netherlands to win (2) 60.2% Medium confidence odds 1.34
Lowest-variance angle: Netherlands or draw (Double Chance) — 94.7%, High confidence (odds 1.06).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds3.35
- Implied probability29.8%
- Modeled probability26.2%
- Estimated EV-12.3%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia v Netherlands | Double Chance: Netherlands or draw (Double Chance) | 1.06 | 94.3% | 94.7% | +0.4% |
| Tunisia v Netherlands | Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 58.8% | 55.3% | -3.6% |
| Tunisia v Netherlands | Total Corners: Over 9.5 | 1.86 | 53.8% | 50.0% | -3.8% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 5.00 | 20.0% | 34.4% | +14.4% | +72.2% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Tunisia or draw (Double Chance) | 3.20 | 31.3% | 39.8% | +8.6% | +27.4% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Netherlands or draw (Double Chance) | 1.06 | 94.3% | 94.7% | +0.4% | +0.4% | High |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 58.8% | 55.3% | -3.6% | -6.1% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 9.5 | 1.86 | 53.8% | 50.0% | -3.8% | -7.0% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 9.5 | 1.86 | 53.8% | 50.0% | -3.8% | -7.0% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.44 | 69.4% | 65.2% | -4.2% | -6.1% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 83.3% | 77.6% | -5.8% | -6.9% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | Tunisia to win (1) | 8.90 | 11.2% | 5.3% | -5.9% | -52.8% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Netherlands to win (2) | 1.34 | 74.6% | 60.2% | -14.4% | -19.3% | Medium |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Brobbey | 2.38 | 42.0% | Low |
| Memphis Depay | 2.50 | 40.0% | Low |
| Wout Weghorst | 2.50 | 40.0% | Low |
| Cody Gakpo | 2.50 | 40.0% | Low |
| Donyell Malen | 2.50 | 40.0% | Low |
| Guus Til | 3.25 | 30.8% | Low |
| Noa Lang | 3.25 | 30.8% | Low |
| Justin Kluivert | 3.25 | 30.8% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.