France vs Morocco
France host Morocco in the World Cup Quarter-finals at Gillette Stadium on 9 July 2026, with kickoff set for 20:00 UTC; this page carries the confirmed team news and lineups as they arrive, the head to head record and the data driven prediction, and it switches to live coverage at kickoff.
Form and Table
Head to Head: Last Meetings
Across 1 recent meetings: France 1 wins | 0 draws | Morocco 0 wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2 : 0 | Morocco |
Prediction
Consensus win probability, blending the API-Football and SportMonks prediction models.
- France
- Morocco
Predicted goals: France -2.5 | Morocco -2.5
Predicted winner: France | Win or draw
Advice: Double chance : France or draw
Prediction, Odds & Value Bets
Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain; odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ — gamble responsibly.
Most likely outcome
France to win (1) 53.7% Low confidence odds 1.58
Lowest-variance angle: France or draw (Double Chance) — 83.1%, High confidence (odds 1.12).
Based on the match prediction model blended with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds.
Suggested same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds5.96
- Implied probability16.8%
- Modeled probability12.9%
- Estimated EV-22.9%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Morocco | Total Corners: Over 9 | 1.78 | 56.2% | 51.8% | -4.4% |
| France v Morocco | Total Shots on Target: Over 8.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | -4.6% |
| France v Morocco | Total Shots on Target: Under 8.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | -4.6% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Markets & angles (1X2, goals, corners, shots on target)
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.90 | 25.6% | 29.5% | +3.8% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Morocco or draw (Double Chance) | 2.30 | 43.5% | 46.7% | +3.2% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Morocco to win (2) | 6.00 | 16.7% | 16.8% | +0.1% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 1.98 | 50.5% | 48.0% | -2.5% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 9 | 1.91 | 52.4% | 48.2% | -4.1% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 9 | 1.78 | 56.2% | 51.8% | -4.4% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 8.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | -4.6% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Under 8.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | -4.6% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.29 | 77.5% | 72.5% | -5.0% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 77.5% | 71.9% | -5.6% | Low |
Likely goalscorers (anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | 1.95 | 51.3% | Low |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 2.62 | 38.2% | Low |
| Marcus Thuram | 2.62 | 38.2% | Low |
| Ousmane Dembele | 3.00 | 33.3% | Low |
| Bradley Barcola | 3.50 | 28.6% | Low |
| Desire Doue | 3.50 | 28.6% | Low |
Anytime goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — variance-heavy, lower confidence.
Want the full picture? See every value angle, edge and expected value, plus how this match fits today’s high-value bets.
Full France vs Morocco betting analysis Today’s high-value bets
Updated: 7 Jul 2026, 05:32 UTC