Norway vs England
Norway host England in the World Cup Quarter-finals at Hard Rock Stadium on 11 July 2026, with kickoff set for 21:00 UTC; this page carries the confirmed team news and lineups as they arrive, the head to head record and the data driven prediction, and it switches to live coverage at kickoff.
Form and Table
Prediction
Consensus win probability, blending the API-Football and SportMonks prediction models.
- Norway
- England
Under/Over goals: +1.5
Predicted goals: Norway -2.5 | England -5.5
Predicted winner: England
Advice: Combo Winner : England and +1.5 goals
Prediction, Odds & Value Bets
Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain; odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ — gamble responsibly.
Most likely outcome
England to win (2) 48.8% Low confidence odds 1.92
Lowest-variance angle: England or draw (Double Chance) — 78.7%, High confidence (odds 1.25).
Based on the match prediction model blended with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds.
Suggested same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds3.95
- Implied probability25.3%
- Modeled probability22.4%
- Estimated EV-11.3%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway v England | Double Chance: England or draw (Double Chance) | 1.25 | 80.0% | 78.7% | -1.3% |
| Norway v England | Double Chance: Norway or draw (Double Chance) | 1.85 | 54.1% | 51.5% | -2.6% |
| Norway v England | Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 58.5% | 55.4% | -3.1% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Markets & angles (1X2, goals, corners, shots on target)
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.70 | 27.0% | 29.9% | +2.8% | Medium |
| Double Chance | England or draw (Double Chance) | 1.25 | 80.0% | 78.7% | -1.3% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Norway or draw (Double Chance) | 1.85 | 54.1% | 51.5% | -2.6% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 58.5% | 55.4% | -3.1% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | England to win (2) | 1.92 | 52.1% | 48.8% | -3.3% | Medium |
| Total Shots on Target | Under 9 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | -4.0% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 9.75 | 1.88 | 53.2% | 49.2% | -4.0% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 9.75 | 1.82 | 54.9% | 50.8% | -4.1% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 9 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | -4.2% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.44 | 69.4% | 65.2% | -4.2% | Low |
Likely goalscorers (anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 1.83 | 54.6% | Low |
| Erling Haaland | 2.20 | 45.5% | Low |
| Ivan Toney | 2.30 | 43.5% | Low |
| Ollie Watkins | 2.30 | 43.5% | Low |
| Jorgen Larsen | 3.40 | 29.4% | Low |
| Marcus Rashford | 3.50 | 28.6% | Low |
Anytime goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — variance-heavy, lower confidence.
Want the full picture? See every value angle, edge and expected value, plus how this match fits today’s high-value bets.
Full Norway vs England betting analysis Today’s high-value bets
Updated: 11 Jul 2026, 10:42 UTC