Norway vs England: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for Norway versus England (kickoff 11 Jul 2026, 21:00 UTC). 12 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
England to win (2) 49.5% Low confidence odds 1.87
Lowest-variance angle: England or draw (Double Chance) — 78.8%, High confidence (odds 1.25).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds4.18
- Implied probability23.9%
- Modeled probability21.6%
- Estimated EV-9.7%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway v England | Double Chance: England or draw (Double Chance) | 1.25 | 80.0% | 78.8% | -1.2% |
| Norway v England | Double Chance: Norway or draw (Double Chance) | 1.91 | 52.4% | 50.4% | -2.0% |
| Norway v England | Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 57.1% | 54.4% | -2.7% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.69 | 27.1% | 29.6% | +2.5% | +9.3% | Medium |
| Double Chance | England or draw (Double Chance) | 1.25 | 80.0% | 78.8% | -1.2% | -1.5% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Norway or draw (Double Chance) | 1.91 | 52.4% | 50.4% | -2.0% | -3.7% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 57.1% | 54.4% | -2.7% | -4.8% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 9.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 49.3% | -3.3% | -6.3% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 9.5 | 1.85 | 54.1% | 50.7% | -3.4% | -6.3% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | England to win (2) | 1.87 | 53.5% | 49.5% | -4.0% | -7.4% | Medium |
| Total Shots on Target | Under 9 | 1.86 | 53.8% | 49.7% | -4.0% | -7.5% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 9 | 1.84 | 54.3% | 50.3% | -4.1% | -7.5% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | Norway to win (1) | 3.95 | 25.3% | 20.9% | -4.5% | -17.6% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.38 | 72.5% | 66.6% | -5.9% | -8.1% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 82.6% | 76.3% | -6.3% | -7.7% | Low |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 1.95 | 51.3% | Low |
| Erling Haaland | 2.20 | 45.5% | Low |
| Ivan Toney | 2.38 | 42.0% | Low |
| Ollie Watkins | 2.38 | 42.0% | Low |
| Bukayo Saka | 3.60 | 27.8% | Low |
| Anthony Gordon | 3.60 | 27.8% | Low |
| Marcus Rashford | 3.60 | 27.8% | Low |
| Jorgen Larsen | 3.60 | 27.8% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.