Norway vs England: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for Norway versus England (kickoff 11 Jul 2026, 21:00 UTC). 12 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
England to win (2) 48.8% Low confidence odds 1.92
Lowest-variance angle: England or draw (Double Chance) — 78.7%, High confidence (odds 1.25).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds3.95
- Implied probability25.3%
- Modeled probability22.4%
- Estimated EV-11.3%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway v England | Double Chance: England or draw (Double Chance) | 1.25 | 80.0% | 78.7% | -1.3% |
| Norway v England | Double Chance: Norway or draw (Double Chance) | 1.85 | 54.1% | 51.5% | -2.6% |
| Norway v England | Goals Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 58.5% | 55.4% | -3.1% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.70 | 27.0% | 29.9% | +2.8% | +10.5% | Medium |
| Double Chance | England or draw (Double Chance) | 1.25 | 80.0% | 78.7% | -1.3% | -1.6% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Norway or draw (Double Chance) | 1.85 | 54.1% | 51.5% | -2.6% | -4.8% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 58.5% | 55.4% | -3.1% | -5.3% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | England to win (2) | 1.92 | 52.1% | 48.8% | -3.3% | -6.3% | Medium |
| Total Shots on Target | Under 9 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | -4.0% | -7.6% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 9.75 | 1.88 | 53.2% | 49.2% | -4.0% | -7.5% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 9.75 | 1.82 | 54.9% | 50.8% | -4.1% | -7.5% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 9 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | -4.2% | -7.6% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.44 | 69.4% | 65.2% | -4.2% | -6.1% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | Norway to win (1) | 3.85 | 26.0% | 21.4% | -4.6% | -17.8% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 83.3% | 76.9% | -6.4% | -7.7% | Low |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 1.83 | 54.6% | Low |
| Erling Haaland | 2.20 | 45.5% | Low |
| Ivan Toney | 2.30 | 43.5% | Low |
| Ollie Watkins | 2.30 | 43.5% | Low |
| Jorgen Larsen | 3.40 | 29.4% | Low |
| Marcus Rashford | 3.50 | 28.6% | Low |
| Eberechi Eze | 3.75 | 26.7% | Low |
| Jude Bellingham | 3.75 | 26.7% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.