Switzerland vs Colombia: Betting Analysis & Value Bets
Data-led betting analysis for Switzerland versus Colombia (kickoff 7 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC). 12 value angles are assessed below from the match prediction model and de-margined bookmaker odds, with modeled probability, edge and expected value for each. Informational only — no bet is a guarantee.
Important: Probability-based analysis, not a prediction or guarantee. No bet is safe or certain. Odds and lineups change before kickoff. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly. See the full match page.
Most likely outcome
Colombia to win (2) 38.3% Low confidence odds 2.25
Lowest-variance angle: Colombia or draw (Double Chance) — 68.9%, Medium confidence (odds 1.30).
Suggested Same-Game Slip
Same-game slip
Low confidence- Combined odds4.13
- Implied probability24.2%
- Modeled probability20.9%
- Estimated EV-13.6%
| Match | Market / selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland v Colombia | Double Chance: Switzerland or draw (Double Chance) | 1.62 | 61.7% | 61.8% | +0.0% |
| Switzerland v Colombia | Total Corners: Over 8.75 | 1.82 | 54.9% | 50.8% | -4.1% |
| Switzerland v Colombia | Goals Over/Under: Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 66.7% | -4.8% |
Same-game legs can be correlated; combined probability is an estimate and a bookmaker may restrict combining them.
Value Angles
| Market | Selection | Odds | Implied | Modeled | Edge | EV | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Switzerland to win (1) | 3.40 | 29.4% | 31.2% | +1.8% | +6.0% | Medium |
| Double Chance | Switzerland or draw (Double Chance) | 1.62 | 61.7% | 61.8% | +0.0% | +0.1% | Medium |
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 3.10 | 32.3% | 30.5% | -1.7% | -5.3% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 44.1% | 41.6% | -2.4% | -5.5% | Low |
| Total Corners | Under 8.75 | 1.88 | 53.2% | 49.2% | -4.0% | -7.5% | Low |
| Total Corners | Over 8.75 | 1.82 | 54.9% | 50.8% | -4.1% | -7.5% | Low |
| Goals Over/Under | Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 66.7% | -4.8% | -6.7% | Low |
| Match Result (1X2) | Colombia to win (2) | 2.25 | 44.4% | 38.3% | -6.2% | -13.9% | Medium |
| Goals Over/Under | Under 3.5 goals | 1.20 | 83.3% | 77.1% | -6.2% | -7.4% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 8.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 46.0% | -6.6% | -12.6% | Low |
| Total Shots on Target | Under 8.5 | 1.62 | 61.7% | 54.0% | -7.8% | -12.6% | Low |
| Double Chance | Colombia or draw (Double Chance) | 1.30 | 76.9% | 68.9% | -8.0% | -10.4% | Medium |
Modeled probability blends the match prediction with de-margined bookmaker-consensus odds. A positive edge means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies — not that it will happen.
Likely Goalscorers (Anytime)
| Player | Odds | Implied chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cucho Hernandez | 3.00 | 33.3% | Low |
| Breel Embolo | 3.25 | 30.8% | Low |
| Luis Suarez | 3.25 | 30.8% | Low |
| Luis Diaz | 3.25 | 30.8% | Low |
| Andres Gomez | 3.60 | 27.8% | Low |
| Cedric Itten | 3.75 | 26.7% | Low |
| Zeki Amdouni | 3.75 | 26.7% | Low |
| Juan Quintero | 4.00 | 25.0% | Low |
Anytime-goalscorer chances are the de-margined market price — a variance-heavy market, so confidence is lower. Shortest odds = most likely to score.
This is a probability-based analysis, not a guarantee. Bet only within your limits, never chase losses, and skip it if odds or lineups change materially. 18+ | BeGambleAware.